In a revealing new poll by Yle, the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) has emerged with a notable six-point lead over Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition Party (NCP). This trend may signal shifting sentiments among Finnish voters as the political landscape continues to evolve.
According to the recent survey, the SDP, led by Antti Lindtman, captured the support of 24.7 percent of respondents—essentially one in four voters. Meanwhile, Orpo’s NCP trailed with 18.7 percent support, leaving them well behind in the race. The Finns Party, coming in third, secured 14.2 percent of voter backing.
Despite the SDP’s lead, all three leading parties have seen a slight decline in support compared to last month’s findings, suggesting a momentary pause in their otherwise solid footing among the electorate.
Tuomo Turja, research director at Taloustutkimus, the firm responsible for the survey, highlighted that the SDP’s numbers have remained robust for several months. Thus, he explained, minor fluctuations are to be expected. Notably, the party reached a remarkable 20-year high in August with 25.8 percent support, but now seems to face a slight downward trajectory.
“Yes, it’s generally true that when support hovers around 26 percent, the only way is often down,” Turja commented. “The SDP has experienced a decrease from that peak in August. Future polls will reveal whether this marks a significant turning point, or if it’s merely a temporary dip.”
In the realm of opposition parties, the Center Party holds its ground in fourth place with 13.9 percent support, while the Left Alliance and the Green Party follow with 10.2 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively. Turja noted that both the Left Alliance and Green Party have benefitted from the SDP’s slight decline, suggesting that some former SDP voters are shifting their allegiance to these opposition groups.
“It’s evident that the Left Alliance stands to gain the most from the SDP’s recent troubles,” Turja remarked. “It appears that some Social Democratic voters have chosen to support the Left Alliance instead.”
Meanwhile, the two smaller parties within Orpo’s coalition have experienced little change in their popularity. The Swedish People’s Party and the Christian Democrats saw marginal declines, now sitting at 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent support, respectively. Collectively, the support for all four government parties has dropped from last month, falling to just over 40 percent combined.
The poll, conducted by Taloustutkimus, surveyed 2,407 individuals from November 10 to December 2. With more than three-quarters of respondents indicating their party affiliation, the margin of error is reported to be two percentage points in either direction.
As Finnish voters navigate this evolving political terrain, the implications for the upcoming elections remain to be seen.